Could the OTL Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of 2014 have been avoided?

Background
President Viktor Andriyovych Yushchenko courted controversy and annoyed Russia often between 2005 and 2010, so Russia cut gas supply for a few months in circa 2008.

Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, who is President of Belarus, has also done like wise, but to a lesser extent. He was also bullied with a short gas cut in circa 2008.

President Viktor Yushchenko replacement, Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych ruled between February 25th, 2010 and February 22nd, 2014.

Lviv also rebelled and booted out the official local authorities on February 19th, which was only a few days before the government partly fell, the new Mayor of Kiev quit and president Viktor Yanukovych was ousted bu an illegal parliamentary impeachment vote. The Head of the Armed forces had quit some time earlier, along with several government officials, the Interior Minister, an earlier Mayor of Kiev and the head of the nations riot police.

Ex-President Viktor Yanukovych then fled to Kharkov and then over the border in to Russia a few days later to seek asylum over there. He also had a personal zoo.

Former President Viktor Yanukovych was an alleged crook who is proven to have lived in a luxury dacha, was overthrown February 22nd, 2014 by a de facto nationalist coup after a long running pro-democracy protest movement in Kiev.

The 'blond-bombshell' 1990's politician, come RosUkrEnergo spokesperson, political prisoner and wheelchair bound political agitator, Yulia Volodymyrivna Tymoshenko also did her bit to excite the rebel crowds in Kiev against the leadership. .

21 to 77 people had died in all sided by February 20th. Circa ~ 82 people had died and several dozen were injured on all sides due to a riot and related massacre at the end of the Kiev protests by February 22nd. Smaller, but angrier, counter-rallies were also held in Simpferovpol, Kiev, Odessa, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Kharkov.

Cause belli
Vague, over played and xenophobic claims that the Ukraine and the EU are allegedly plotting against Russia, via an illegal coup (and yes it was illegal) and that local militias are supposedly killing hundreds of ethnic Russians in the Ukraine.

The Euromadian Square and Liviv protests
Both Berkut riot police and the Internal Troops of Ukraine violently attacked the Ukrainian protesters on Euromaidan Square, Kiev on November 30th, 2013. Pro-rebel Automaidan gangs and pro-government Titushky gangs also battled it out on the streets at later dates until the president fled Kiev.

Kiev's Lenin statue was attacked by rebels on December 1st. The larger than life-size, 3.45 meters/11.32 feet tall, Lenin monument was built by Soviet sculptor Sergey Merkurov from the same red coloured Karelian stone as was used for Lenin's Mausoleum.

Kiev's Lenin statue was destroyed by rebels on 8 December 2013

Lviv's executive committee, who supported Kievan pro-democracy Euromaidan movement, declared itself "politically independent" of the rule of President Viktor Yanukovych and refused to accept his leadership on February 19th. The executive committee of the local "People's Rada" was led by Petro Kolodiy, chairman of the Lviv region's council. The comity de facto sacked the official leader, Oleh Salo. Ukrainians rebels blocked the Korczowa crossing to Poland, which is near Lviv. Opposition groups had gathered in Khmelnitsky, Ivano-Frankivsk, Uzhorod and Ternopil and stormed the locally public buildings according to local journalists.

The 20th saw extraordinary scenes as a bizarre and political motivated donkey court in Lviv involved sentencing several members of the Berkut elite anti-riot force going on to a stage to publicly grovel and beg for forgiveness as the crowd chanted "Murderers!", "Shame!" and "Tribunal!" at them!

They were welcomed in Odessa and the Crimea as heroes had been cheered at by the public.

35 Kiev Berkut police disappeared from there sub-unit barracks in Kiev, along with weapons and body armor later that day.

President Viktor Yanukovych was an alleged crook who is proven to have lived in a luxury dacha, was overthrown February 22nd, 2014 by a de facto nationalist coup after a long running pro-democracy protest movement in Kiev. He also had a personal zoo. The by then Ex-President Viktor Yanukovych then fled to Kharkov and then over the border in to Russia a few days later.

The 'blond-bombshell' 1990's politician, come RosUkrEnergo spokesperson, political prisoner and wheelchair bound political agitator, Yulia Volodymyrivna Tymoshenko also did her bit to excite the rebel crowds in Kiev against the leadership. . The now crippled and blond hair-died Yulia Timoshenko gave a weepy speech from her wheelchair in Kiev at 19.00 UTC as she once more tried to ensconce her self in office, but the Speaker of the Parliament was till in interim presidential usage by the Ukrainian Rada as PM. Yulia then finished off by cutting a desperate tantrum, drove off in her car and sobbed up in a near by car park.

The armed conflict in the Ukraine it self
Alexander Zaldostanov, who is the head of the Russian Night Wolves biker gang and an old friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was reportedly in charge of the Crimea on February 28th.

He may be also connected to the insignia-less troops in the green uniforms were in charge, whoever they are, which were present by that evening. The troops had also set up patrols in Simpferovpol, put up checkpoints on the roads outside Russia's Sevastopol navy base, which is the home of the Black Sea Fleet; and set up a cordon around the Crimean TV tower.

After a day of bitter ethnio-political rivalry, ugly scuffles had broken out in Simpferovpol, Kiev, Lvov, Odessa, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Kharkov. Russia flooded the Crimea with troops between February 27th and 28th, and secured the Crimean Peninsular peacefully.

Acting President Oleksander Turchinov accused Russia of open aggression on February 28th and March 2nd

Once Russia had secured the Crimean Peninsular on March 1st, and the Ukrainian navy less 1 renegade, inoperative or forgotten coastal patrol boat fled.

Masked thugs loyal to Russia needlessly wrecked the control tower at Feiadosia Airport on March 1st, wounding a Ukrainian as they did so and a small Ukrainian mob in Kiev beat a ethnic Russian and 3 ethnic Poles to death. The authorities in Kiev were nervous that Ukrainian racists and fascists were steady taking the city's streets over.

Several ethnic Ukrainians have been reportedly leaving the Crimea, while most are reluctantly collaborating, a few like the Navy Chief of Staff are occasional openly defecting or becoming prisoners in there bases like the local army garrison ant Simperofpol if they are ethnically Ukrainian military personnel. Masked and unidentified gunmen set up guard the gate of of the surrounded infantry base in Privolnoye to stop the Ukrainians getting out on March the 1st.

2 Russian anti-submarine warships (a mine layer and a corvette) enter Sevastopol along with a Russian spy-ship that was guarding Syria in the morning of March 2nd.

By the morning of the 3rd all Ukrainian army, navy and air bases were surrounded and all telecommunication equipment taken over. .

Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to pull back his troops in the Crimea on the 3rd.

Ukraine's New Navy Head, Admiral Denis Berezovsky, defected on the 3rd of March after 1 day in the job after his predecessor had fled with the Ukrainian Navy. When Admiral Berezovsky tryed to perswade his former subordinates to join him they tolt him to leave, sung the Ukranian national anthem and then went back to there posts. A deadline was issued by local commanders at circa 16.00 UTC in the Crimear for Ukranians to surrender in the region or face an assult by Russian troops at 15.00 UTC on the 4th. The Russian goverment and President Vladimir Putin denied autherising the dead line.

Airports
They soon took over Simperofpol airport on the 28th, then wrecked Feiadosia airport control tower and took over the lot by March 2nd.

Masked thugs loyal to Russia needlessly wrecked the control tower at Feiadosia Airport on March 1st, wounding a Ukrainian as they did so and a small Ukrainian mob in Kiev beat a ethnic Russian and 3 ethnic Poles to death. The authorities in Kiev were nervous that Ukrainian racists and fascists were steady taking the city's streets over.

President in exile
President Victor Yanukovych fled Kiev on the night of 21 February 2014, initially to his etno-political stronghold of Kharkiv with bodyguards and personal effects. In his press conference in Rostov-on-Don on 28 February Yanukovych claimed that at the time he was in control of the situation, was planning to start a fight back in Kharkov and did not "flee anywhere", but that his car was shot at "by automatic rifles" as he left Kiev for Kharkiv "to meet the representatives of local parties" and he was then forced to move around Ukraine amid fears for the safety of himself and his family. "When we arrived in Kharkiv, on the early morning of 22 February, the security service started to receive information that various radical groups were arriving in Kharkiv".

Diplomacy, the EU, NATO and the UN
British Foreign Secretary, William Hague said on March 2nd, 2014 that he is traveling to Kiev to talk with Ukraine's new leaders to discuss ways out of the crisis. He arrived on the 3rd. NATO, the EU, Secretary of State John Kerry, German Chancelor Anglia Merkel and Poland's President Donald Tusk also the annexing of Crimea on March 2nd.

President Barack Obama condemned the attack on both March the 28th and March 2nd. He Phoned President Vladimir Putin on the 28th of Febuary.

The U.S.A.’s Sectary of State Kerry suggested early on the 2nd that expelling Russia from the G8 and "asset freezes" were among the possible economic sanctions that could be imposed for Russia's "incredible act of aggression."

The Group of Seven (U.S.A., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom) held an emergency summit on the 3rd.

John Kerry arrived in Kiev on the 3rd as Russia faced a mounting global outcry,  Rwanda's representative to the UN Security council called for peace. The Russian delegate had a bellicose exstange with it's French, British and American counterparts.

Economics and trade
Oil, wheat and coal prices rise on the London stock market by the earning of the 3rd. The USA which is 4% trade dependent on Russia plans oil sanctions on March 3rd. Europe, which is 30% dependent and was long romantically charmed by Putin’s brutishness dose little beyond threatening the scrapping the latest G8 summit and not sending a head of state to the Sochi Parra-Olympics.

UK fiscal links go to to so many Ukrainian former state assets that had served to increase fiscal policy and morality pressures on Britain to freeze assets of those close to the Yanukovych regime. Switzerland, Austria and Liechtenstein imposed sanctions on the former President’s closest circle, including his son Oleksandr.

Sports
The U.K. has joined the U.S.A., France and Canada in suspending preparations for the Sochi Parra-Olympics.

Legal
A warrant for Yanukovych's arrest was issued on 24 February, accusing him of mass murder of protesters. Acting Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov anounce the ex-president was to be placed on Ukraine's most wanted list and that a criminal case on mass killings of civilians has been opened up against him.

On 28 February the General Prosecutor of Ukraine, Oleh Makhnitsky, formally asked Russia to extradite Victor Yanukovych.

Switzerland starts a money laundering probe in to the ousted president's finances on February 28th.

Public opinion outside of Russia and the Ukraine
The day after the coup, rival rallies took place in Kharkov. A clash occurred; then a breakaway pro-democracy rebel group took over the town hall only to be in turn crushed by ethnic Russian break-away mob. Sometime during this incident, an ethnic Russian, an ethnic Ukrainian and an ethnic pole were all wounded. During a scuffle in Sevastopol an ethnic Russian and as Cimmerian Tartar were also wounded.

Public and expert opinion in the UK, EU and USA appears to support Russia on 5 points-
 * 1) They admire Russia’s violent nature.
 * 2) They believe “might is right” and disregard any “cause belli.”
 * 3) They believe anything Putin and his entourage say.
 * 4) Most EU nations are at least near to war with 1 other nation and 2 separatist regions, thus feeling kinship with Russia’s dilemma.
 * 5) Rampant fear is amongst most European élites of a domino effect leading to the collapse of their own Kleptocacys.

Some French expert opinion holds to the line that it’s a form of Russian fachist or racist expansionist related to the “Eurasanisum” doctrine.

A small pro-Ukraine rally occurred in Berlin on March 2nd.

The future
Due to the he ethnic issues taking place Russia is justified as is annexingt he Crimea and the now rebellious ethnic Russian towns of Kharkov and Donetsk, but going west of the Dnieper River enters mostly ethnically Ukrainian territory, plus a few % of Poles, Lemko, Bulgars, Magyar and Romanians is going to far! Crossing the Dnieper without good cause would be excessive and neo-colonialist.

The Crimean Tartars have indicated the desire to stay neutral, but will fight back if attacked.

Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, who is President of Belarus, has also been bullied by a short gas cut in circa 2008, so is his nation next, I wonder?

Map


Due to the Crimea's long historical ties to Russia, it has major racial, cultural and strategic interest in the Crimea Peninsular, especially at the Sevastopol Navy base and the city of Simpferovpol.