Could the OTL Russian invasion of Ukraine in February of 2014 have been avoided?

Transwikied from- http://balticstates.wikia.com/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine_in_the_February_of_2014?action=delete .



Overview
I wanted to let on about what was going on, felt Wikipedia was playing it to soft on Russia and Pan-Slavisum and wondering if there was any way it could have been avoided. Got any ideas?!

The page will seas to update after April 2, since it will no longer be 'news', but comments on the talk page will always be welcomed.Whipsnade (talk) 01:10, March 7, 2014 (UTC)  

Background
Ukrainian politics was always dominated by ethnical grounds, dividing between the Russian-majority Eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian-majority Western Ukraine.

In 2004, the election results voted Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych to presidential office. However, the opposition leader Viktor Andriyovych Yushchenko protested against the results, and, together with Yulia Volodymyrivna Tymoshenko, lead the Orange Revolution. The Supreme Court of Ukraine ruled the election should be redone. Yushchenko won this reelection, he was the representative of West Ukraine, the Ukrainian-majority region. President Yushchenko courted controversy and annoyed Russia often between 2005 and 2010, so Russia cut gas supply for a few months in circa 2008.

Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, who is President of Belarus, has also done likewise, but to a lesser extent. He was also bullied with a short gas cut in circa 2008.

President Viktor Yushchenko replacement, Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych assumed office on February 25th, 2010. He was from the Russian-majority Eastern region of Ukraine. He quickly made Russian-friendly decisions, including a decision not to recognize the Holodomor as a genocide, and imprisoning Yulia Tymoshenko, the Prime Minister of Ukraine serving under Yushchenko. Ukrainian-majority regions were outraged.

After Mr. Yanukovych declined an economic offer from Ukraine and accepted a substitute offer from Russia. West Ukraine went wild and the people in Kyiv was angry and protested at the Independence Square, starting the Euromaidan protests.

Lviv residents also rebelled and booted out the official local authorities on February 19th, which was only a few days before the government partly fell. Many of the cabinet members, the previous Mayor of Kyiv and a long list of other politicians from the governing Party of Regions  On February 22nd, the new Mayor of Kiev quit and president Viktor Yanukovych escaped from Kyiv. He was deemed pesonly incompatible for his political office and was ousted by a parliamentary impeachment vote. This vote could only have been successful after many MPs of the governing and majority Party of Regions defected to the opposition parties. Eventually the Party of Regions was reduced to below 20 seats. .

The new acting president, Oleksandr Turchynov, cooperated with the parliament for many decisions, most notably forming a new government, releasing Yulia Tymoshenko from prison, put Yanukovych on arrest warrant and setting a date for the next presidential election in May 2014.

Ex-President Viktor Yanukovych then fled to Kharkov and then over the border in to Russia a few days later to seek asylum over there.

Yulia Tymoshenko, after her release, immediately head to Maidan (Independence Square) to congratulate the protesters. She said the corruption cancer of Ukraine was over. .

21 to 77 people had died in all sides by February 20th. Circa ~ 82 people had died and several dozen were injured on all sides due to a riot and related massacre at the end of the Kiev protests by February 22nd.

Ethnic Russians in the East of Ukraine felt threatened by extremist, nationalist factions of the protesters in Kyiv and organised counter-protests against the new government.

While all of this were happening, ethnic Ukrainians flee to Poland and ethnic Russians flee to Russia to escape the crisis. Russia took advantage of this to declare that Russians in Ukraine were threatened, and the State Duma voted to allow Vladimir Putin, President of Russia to be able to militarily intervene into Ukraine. Then suddenly Yanukovych appears in Russia, declares he is still the legitimate president, and called for Putin to invade Ukraine militarily. Many people still recognises Yanukovych as the legitimate president, but this is not true - the current, operative since February 21st (before coup) Constitution of Ukraine, 2004 allows the overthrowing of the President in case of state treason or any crimes. Disappearing from office provides enough evidence he have commit state treason, and even Vladimir Putin said he doesn't believe Yanukovych has a political future.

Ethnic Russian demonstrators raise Russian flag in Kerch on the 23th of February, 2014.

Cause belli
An apparently vague, over played and posibly even xenophobic claims that the Ukraine and the EU are allegedly plotting against Russia, via an illegal coup (and yes it was illegal) and that local militias are supposedly killing hundreds of ethnic Russians in the Ukraine.

The Euromadian Square and Liviv protests
Both Berkut riot police and the Internal Troops of Ukraine violently attacked the Ukrainian protesters on Euromaidan Square, Kiev on November 30th, 2013. Pro-rebel Auto-Maidan gangs and pro-government Titushky gangs also battled it out on the streets at later dates until the president fled Kiev. The Grand Majlise of the Crimmeaian Tartars also goave political support to the pro-democracy movement.

Kiev's Lenin statue was attacked by rebels on December 1st. The larger than life-size, 3.45 meters/11.32 feet tall, Lenin monument was built by Soviet sculptor Sergey Merkurov from the same red coloured Karelian stone as was used for Lenin's Mausoleum.

Kiev's Lenin statue was destroyed by rebels on 8 December 2013

Lviv's executive committee, who supported Kievan pro-democracy Euromaidan movement, declared itself "politically independent" of the rule of President Viktor Yanukovych and refused to accept his leadership on February 19th. The executive committee of the local "People's Rada" was led by Petro Kolodiy, chairman of the Lviv region's council. The comity de facto sacked the official leader, Oleh Salo. Ukrainians rebels blocked the Korczowa crossing to Poland, which is near Lviv. Opposition groups had gathered in Khmelnitsky, Ivano-Frankivsk, Uzhorod and Ternopil and stormed the locally public buildings according to local journalists.

The 20th saw extraordinary scenes as a bizarre and political motivated donkey court in Lviv (Livov) involved sentencing several members of the Berkut elite anti-riot force going on to a stage to publicly grovel and beg for forgiveness as the crowd chanted "Murderers!", "Shame!" and "Tribunal!" at them. Other cops were welcomed in Odessa and the Crimea as heroes had been cheered at by the public.

35 Kiev Berkut police disappeared from there sub-unit barracks in Kiev, along with weapons and body armor later that day.

President Viktor Yanukovych was an alleged crook who is proven to have lived in a luxury dacha, was overthrown February 22nd, 2014 by a de facto nationalist coup after a long running pro-democracy protest movement in Kiev was violently quashed. He also had a personal zoo. The by then Ex-President Viktor Yanukovych then fled to Kharkov and then over the border in to Russia a few days later.

The 'blond-bombshell' 1990's politician, come RosUkrEnergo spokesperson, political prisoner and wheelchair bound political agitator, Yulia Volodymyrivna Tymoshenko also did her bit to excite the rebel crowds in Kiev against the leadership. . The now crippled and blond hair-died Yulia Timoshenko gave a weepy speech from her wheelchair in Kiev at 19.00 UTC as she once more tried to ensconce her self in office, but the Speaker of the Parliament was till in interim presidential usage by the Ukrainian Rada as PM. Yulia then finished off by cutting a desperate tantrum, drove off in her car and sobbed up in a near by car park along side her distraught and grief stricken daughter.

The day after the coup, rival rallies took place in Kharkov (Karkiv). A clash occurred; then a breakaway pro-democracy rebel group took over the town hall only to be in turn crushed by ethnic Russian break-away mob. Sometime during this incident, an ethnic Russian, an ethnic Ukrainian and an ethnic pole were all wounded. During a scuffle in Sevastopol an ethnic Russian and as Crimean Tartar were also wounded.

Riots in Karkov and Donetsk.
After a day of bitter ethnio-political rivalry, ugly scuffles had broken out in Simpferovpol, Kiev, Lvov, Odessa, Sevastopol, Donetsk and Kharkov. Russia flooded the Crimea with troops between February 27th and 28th, and secured the Crimean Peninsular peacefully.

A small Ukrainian mob in Kiev beat a ethnic Russian and 3 ethnic Poles to death and Donetsk saw ethnic Russian Speaking mobs storm the town hall, killing a ethnic Ukrainian. The authorities in Kiev were nervous that Ukrainian racists and fascists were steady taking the city's streets ove on March 1st.

Riotous rallies occurred in Odessa and riot policemen stood guard in front of the regional administration building in Donetsk on March 3rd.

The Ukrainian Police retakes the local town hall and regional Parliament in Donetsk on the 7th.

The armed conflict in the Crimea.
Local ethnic Russian demonstrators raise Russian flag in Kerch on the 23th of February, 2014.

Alexander Zaldostanov, who is the head of the Russian Night Wolves biker gang and an old friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, was reportedly in charge of the Crimea on February 28th.

He may be also connected to the insignia-less troops in the green uniforms were in charge, whoever they are, which were present by that evening. The troops had also set up patrols in Simpferovpol, put up checkpoints on the roads outside Russia's Sevastopol navy base, which is the home of the Black Sea Fleet; and set up a cordon around the Crimean TV tower.

Acting President Oleksander Turchinov accused Russia of open aggression on February 28th and March 2nd

Russian Prime Minister, Dmitry Medvedev ordered that practical work on the issue of building a road/rail bridge over the Kerch Strait should go ahead on February 28th.

Once Russia had secured the Crimean Peninsular on March 1st, and the Ukrainian navy less 1 renegade, inoperative or forgotten coastal patrol boat fled it's base and home port at Balaclava Bay. The army and air force retreaded to their bases. Masked thugs loyal to Russia wrecked the control tower at Feadosia Airport on March 1st and 2nd wounding a Ukrainian as they did so,

Several ethnic Ukrainians had been reportedly leaving the Crimea, while most are reluctantly collaborating, a few like the Navy Chief of Staff are occasional openly defecting or becoming prisoners in there bases like the local army garrison ant Simperofpol if they are ethnically Ukrainian military personnel. Masked and unidentified gunmen set up guard the gate of of the surrounded infantry base in Privolnoye to stop the Ukrainians getting out on March the 1st.

2 Russian anti-submarine warships (a mine layer and a corvette) enter Sevastopol along with a Russian spy-ship that had been guarding Syria before the morning of March 2nd.

By the morning of the 3rd, all Ukrainian army, navy and air bases were surrounded and all telecommunication equipment taken over by Russian and the green uniformed insignia-less troopers. .

The Perikop Isthmus is secured by Russian forces on the 3rd and Refugee flows ebb off there own accord, but not at Russia's as the troops stay at thire new posts.

Russia attacked the City of Kerch on Mach 3rd.

Hacked off Ukrainian soldiers confronted Russian forces at the Belbeck airbase and 8 warning shots are fired at the Ukranians by the Russians on the morning of March 3rd . It surrendered to the Russians on the 4th .

President Vladimir Putin ended army exercise on the 4th and thus Russian markets rallied.

Russian troops began withdrawing from Kerch useing the ferry crossing to Russia on March 4th, according to Kerch.FM reports.

Russia's Black Sea Fleet's chief officer Aleksander Vitko also threatened a full assault if they did not surrender by dawn on the 4th, local military sources said.

Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk then called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to pull back his troops in the Crimea on the 3rd.

Ukraine's Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk that any long term attempt to seize Crimea off of the Ukraine would fail, urging the nations allies to give economic and political support to his endangered government.

Ukraine's New Navy Head, Admiral Denis Berezovsky, defected on the 3rd of March after 1 day in the job after his predecessor had fled with the Ukrainian Navy. When Admiral Denis Berezovsky tried to persuade his former subordinates to join him they told him to leave, proudly sung the Ukrainian national anthem and then went back to there posts. He then left with only a hand full of defectors.

A deadline was issued by local Russian commanders at circa 16.00 UTC in the Crimear for Ukrainians to surrender in the region or face an assault by Russian troops at 15.00 UTC on the 4th. The Russian government and Russia's President Vladimir Putin denied authoring the reported dead-lines.

The deputy commander of Russia 810th brigade, Vladimir Karpushenko, was recognized by journalists posing as head of Crimea self-defense volunteers who seize and block Ukraine military units on the peninsula, Moscow journalist Arkadij Babchenko wrote in Facebook March 5.

Yalta is raided by Russian forces on March 6th.

E.U. visa talks are suspended for Russians and Ukrainians on the 6th. Russia's Parliament later supported the Crimean parliament's plan for a vote on joining Russia on March the 16th. President Vladimir Putin rebuffed a 90 phone call by America's President Barrack Obama. He also asked American diplomats not to start a new Cold War Russia.

OECD observers are sent on the 5th, but booted out on the 6th and 7th. The situation as of date is most tense between Ukraine and Russia at the local unit of the naval forces of Ukraine in Sevastopol, but no violence has occurred.

Sky News picked up on the 7th that there were 30,000 Russians occupying the Crimea, but they thought it was exaggerated. Several local insignia-less militias were also dismissed as local rebels  by Sky News since they were in the latest Russian Army and FSB uniforms, had band new weapons and carried the latest radio sets. A truck they used had a Russian licence plate and was of an imported Italian type that can be bought in Russia, not Ukraine. It is also reported many of the Russian troopers spoke in a Standard Russian not Crimean Russian dialect or axent. There is also, as far as I know an eastern Siberian, Southern Russian and Donetsk dialect to.

Crimean Airports
They soon took over Simperofpol airport on the 28th, then wrecked Feadosia Airport control tower and took over the lot by March1st  and 2nd, , wounding a Ukrainian as they did so.

Crimean Ukranian militery bases
Hacked off Ukrainian soldiers confronted Russian forces at the Belbeck Airbase and 8 warning shots are fired at the Ukranians by the Russians on the morning of March 3rd .

On March 5th, deputy commander, Lieutenant Colonel Sergej Matsjuk surrenders anti-aircraft base northwest of Simferopol.

Sevastopol Ukrainian Navy Signals Base' s commander Lt Comdr Olaxander Yessin refuses to surrender and starts a stand off with the Russian Cossacks besieging his base on the 7th.

President in exile
President Victor Yanukovych fled Kiev on the night of 21 February 2014, initially to his etno-political stronghold of Kharkiv (Kharkov) with bodyguards and personal effects.

In his press conference in Rostov-on-Don on 28 February Yanukovych claimed that at the time he was in control of the situation, was planning to start a fight back in Kharkov and did not "flee anywhere", but that his car was shot at "by automatic rifles" as he left Kiev for Kharkiv "to meet the representatives of local parties" and he was then forced to move around Ukraine amid fears for the safety of himself and his family. "When we arrived in Kharkiv, on the early morning of 22 February, the security service started to receive information that various radical groups were arriving in Kharkiv".

Missile tests
Poland Guaranteed funds for it's part of the N.A.T.O. Missile Shield on April 12th 2013

In early 2014 the Russian military had announced plans to test around 70 types of rocket and missile weaponry, which will include about 300 launches of rockets, missiles and aerial drones, according to an RIA report.

The Russian Strategic Rocket Forces launched an RS-12M Topol missile from a region near the north western part of Caspian Sea and successfully hit a test target in Kazakhstan on March 3rd.

U.S. Department of Defense officials said the test was "not unexpected" and that the usual "S.T.A.R.T. treaty notification occurred" (whic Russia is legaly obliged to do under the treaty).

Diplomacy, the EU, NATO and the UN
British Foreign Secretary, William Hague said on March 2nd, 2014 that he is traveling to Kiev to talk with Ukraine's new leaders to discuss ways out of the crisis. He arrived on the 3rd. NATO, the EU, Secretary of State John Kerry, German Chancelor Anglia Merkel and Poland's President Donald Tusk also the annexing of Crimea on March 2nd.

President Barack Obama condemned the attack on both March the 28th and March 2nd. He phoned President Vladimir Putin on the 28th of Febuary.

The U.S.A.’s Sectary of State Kerry suggested early on the 2nd that expelling Russia from the G8 and "asset freezes" were among the possible economic sanctions that could be imposed for Russia's "incredible act of aggression."

The Group of Seven (U.S.A., Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom) held an emergency summit on the 3rd.

America's President Barack Obama had reiterated his nation's Guarantee for Poland's Security early on the morning of March 3rd in a phone call to his Polish counterpart. The call also pointed out the Guarantee for the Baltic Nations's Security would be honored if Russia tacked them instead of Poland

American Secatery of State, John Kerry, arrived in Kiev on the 3rd as Russia faced a mounting global outcry,  Rwanda's representative to the UN Security council called for peace. The Russian delegate had a bellicose exstange with it's French, British and American counterparts.

However, a British official was photographed by a sharp-eyed journalist on the 3rd, holding policy documents that seemed suggest the UK will not seek to curb trade with Russia or close London's financial center to Russians.

Russia's Parliament welcome Crimea's vote on joining Russia and Ukraine denounces it. Russian President Vladimir Putin asks that the USA dose not start a new Cold War over Crimea.

The EU ends visa talks for Ukraine and Russia on March 6th. The USA also baned travel by some Russian officals in its territory on the 7th.

Economics and trade
Oil, wheat and coal prices rise on the London stock market by the earning of the 3rd. The USA which is 4% trade dependent on Russia plans oil sanctions on March 3rd. Europe, which is 30% dependent and was long romantically charmed by Putin’s brutishness dose little beyond threatening the scrapping the latest G8 summit and not sending a head of state to the Sochi Parra-Olympics.

UK fiscal links go to to so many Ukrainian former state assets that had served to increase fiscal policy and morality pressures on Britain to freeze assets of those close to the Yanukovych regime. Switzerland, Austria and Liechtenstein imposed sanctions on the former President’s closest circle, including his son Oleksandr.

Russia's rouble had fallen to an all-time low against both the US$ and the Euro on March the 3rd. Markets had rallied on the 4th.

Russia Gas'Prom thetened to cut of Ukrain's gas supply on the 3rd, 6th and 7th if it is not payed a $1.55 bn back payment bill.

Germany and Italy are about 25% dependent  on Russian gas supplies. The U.K. is probably more dependent on Russian mafia money than anywhere else in the world outside of Russia its self.

Sports
The U.K. has joined the U.S.A., France and Canada in suspending preparations for the Sochi Parra-Olympics.

Legal
A warrant for Yanukovych's arrest was issued on 24 February, accusing him of mass murder of protesters. Acting Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov anounce the ex-president was to be placed on Ukraine's most wanted list and that a criminal case on mass killings of civilians has been opened up against him.

On 28 February the General Prosecutor of Ukraine, Oleh Makhnitsky, formally asked Russia to extradite Victor Yanukovych.

Switzerland starts a money laundering probe in to the ousted president's finances on February 28th.

Peacekeepers and observers
The OECD sent observers on the 5th and it was refused accuses on the 6th and 7th by the insignia-less troops.

USA military maneuvers
A American destroyer is sent to the Turkish sector of the Black Sea on maneuvers during March 7th.

President Barack Obama orders 12 U.S. F-16 fighter jets and 300 U.S. troops to take up duties in Poland on 7 March

Public opinion outside of Russia and the Ukraine
Public and expert opinion in the UK, EU and USA appears to support Russia on 5 points-
 * 1) They admire Russia’s violent nature.
 * 2) They believe “might is right” and disregard any “cause belli.”
 * 3) They believe anything Putin and his entourage say.

State opinion outside of Russia and the Ukraine

 * 1) Many EU nations are at least near to war with 1 other nation and 1 separatist regions, thus feeling kinship with Russia’s dilemma.
 * 2) Rampant fear is amongst most European élites of a domino effect leading to the collapse of their own Kleptocacys.
 * 3) Germany and Italy are ~25% dependent on Russian gas.

Some French expert opinion holds to the line that it’s a form of Russian fachist and racist expansionist ideas related to the Russian “Eurasanisum” doctrine. They fear that Kazakhstan, which is ~ 25% ethnically Russian will be the next to fall.

A small pro-Ukraine rally occurred in Berlin on March 2nd.

Public opinion inside of Russia and the Ukraine
March 6th and 7th saw modest patriotic rallies in Kiev and Moscow. President Vladimir Putin is on an all-time high. Ukrainians start forming local militias and joining forces related ti the Auto-Madian militia.

State opinion inside of Russia and the Ukraine
Ukraine fears being over-run and annexed to Russia. Russia has requested the was dose not start a new Cold War over the Russian's irridetist in Ukraine.

The future
Due to the he ethnic issues taking place Russia is justified as is annexingt he Crimea and the now rebellious ethnic Russian towns of Kharkov and Donetsk, but going west of the Dnieper River enters mostly ethnically Ukrainian territory, plus a few % of Poles, Lemko, Bulgars, Magyar and Romanians is going to far. Crossing the Dnieper without good cause would be excessive and neo-colonialist.

The Crimean Tartars have indicated the desire to stay neutral, but will fight back if attacked.

Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, who is President of Belarus, has also been bullied by a short gas cut in circa 2008, so is his nation next, I wonder?

2010 and 2014 presidential rests map
The 2014 election is still pending a offical date and no capaning has yet occered.

Ethnic map


Due to the Crimea's long historical ties to Russia, it has major racial, cultural and strategic interest in the Crimea Peninsular, especially at the Sevastopol Navy base and the city of Simpferovpol. Tartars, Poles and Romanians also have their own long held spheres of influence.